Inside Russia’s war machine: why Ramzan Kadyrov and Yevgeny Prigozhin matter

Two men, who are not formally heading any of the military or security agencies, have been voicing criticisms of the way the war is conducted.

By Ilya Abishev & Kateryna Khinkulova

Ramzan Kadyrov (left) and Yevgeny Prigozhin are an unusual duo in Putin’s inner circle. © Getty Images

Russia’s advances in Ukraine have effectively stalled. Its military command is under increasing criticism. Two voices are especially vocal - the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and the founder of Wagner group Yevgeny Prigozhin. Why do they matter?

War in Ukraine ruined the image of the Russian army as an efficient and well-run body. Initially, the Russian forces failed to take the Ukrainian capital Kyiv “in three days” as the state propaganda had promised. Later, they were forced to retreat from large swathes of territory in the face of Ukrainian counter-offensive. Appointment in early October of a new chief of Russian forces in Ukraine general Sergey Surovikin has not delivered results so far.

Two men, who are not formally heading any of the military or security agencies, have been voicing criticisms of the way the war is conducted. Not only do they criticise army commanders in unison, they also praise each other and may form a previously unlikely alliance.

The mere fact that the duo are criticising Russian army generals publicly - under any other circumstances, an unheard of display of disloyalty - and are not being quashed, indicates that they are allowed to do so. There are other signs that Vladimir Putin takes their opinions into account. 

There are widespread media reports that colonel-general Alexander Lapin, one of the top Russian commanders in Ukraine, was dismissed over the weekend. This has not been officially confirmed. 

Only two days earlier the leader of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov described him as “talentless” and blamed for some of the recent defeats, including in the town of Lyman which had been recaptured by the Ukrainian forces in early October. Kadyrov said on social media that general Lapin needs to be stripped of his rank and “sent to the frontline as a private”.

“He needs to be made to wash off his shame with blood,” Kadyrov ranted. 

Businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin had also criticised and mocked Lapin.

In an indication of his influence, Prigozhin has been allowed to visit Russian prisons to recruit convicts to fight in Ukraine - this wouldn’t have happened without permission from the highest level.

Who are Prigozhin and Kadyrov?

Yevgeny Prigozhin is a businessman from St Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city, owner of catering companies and restaurants, as well as other businesses. He was nicknamed “Putin’s chef” as he supplied food and drink for official events in the Kremlin. 

It is rumoured that they know each other from the 1990s when Vladimir Putin lived in St Petersburg, working in the mayor’s office. He would frequent Yevgeny Prigoznin’s restaurant, popular among local officials.

In the 2010s, several journalistic investigations linked Yevgeny Prigozhin to a St Petersburg disinformation unit, a so-called “troll factory”. The factory was reported to generate content to discredit Russian political opposition online and to show the Kremlin in a positive light. 

In 2016, according to an investigation later carried out by Special Counsel Robert Mueller, the troll factory was part of the Russian attempt to interfere in the US presidential elections. Prigozhin denied links to the troll factory. 

For many years he also denied links to Wagner Group, a mercenary-recruiting company, which first emerged in the east of Ukraine in 2014. Its fighters later surfaced in Syria and many African countries. Recently Prigozhin admitted that he was behind the establishment of Wagner which proved to be one of the more effective Russian units in the war in Ukraine.

For many years, Yevgeny Prigozhin has been locked in a public conflict with St Petersburg governor Alexander Beglov. One manifestation of this feud is refusal of the city authorities to grant Prigozhin permission for a property development project in St Petersburg environs. Recently, Prigozhin even went as far as to accuse Beglov of “helping the Ukrainian army” - a remark which so far did not result in demotion for St Petersburg governor.

Ramzan Kadyrov is president of Chechnya. Historically, this autonomous republic in the North Caucasus region of Russia had had a complicated and often violent relationship with Moscow. 

In the 1990s, Chechnya unsuccessfully fought for independence. Since 2007 it’s been ruled by Ramzan Kadyrov, an appointee and fierce supporter of president Putin. 

Under his authority, all attempts at Chechen independence ceased, while the situation with human rights deteriorated. Disappearances of those suspected of dissent became widespread. Kadyrov claimed that there were no gay people in Chechnya while purges against LGBT community were widely documented.

Ramzan Kadyrov had been recently promoted by the Kremlin. © Getty Images

Kadyrov was a vocal supporter of the Russian invasion of Ukraine from the start.

Military units under his command are known as “kadyrovites”. The Chechen leader always claimed that these units were some of the best-trained and effective, as well as brave and ruthless.

While there are some reports to substantiate Kadyrov’s words, there have also been commentators who branded his men “TikTok troops”. This was a hint that these units were more interested in posting videos of their exploits on social media than actually fighting. 

Human rights activists say a substantial proportion of Chechen soldiers were recruited against their will, after their families were threatened with extortion or physical violence.

In an indication that his loyalty is appreciated by the Kremlin, Ramzan Kadyrov was promoted from brigadier general to colonel-general.

Why do these two matter?

Previously not known to be allies, over recent weeks Ramzan Kadyrov and Yevgeny Prigozhin sound increasingly in tune. 

The Chechen leader calls the St Petersburg businessman “a warrior from birth” and Wagner mercenaries - “fearless patriots of Russia”. Yevgeny Prigozhin returns the compliment and frequently expresses support for Kadyrov. “Ramzan,  you are on fire!” he said in one of his social media posts.

Both men criticise the military establishment, represented by the Minister of Defence Sergey Shoigu and his deputy and Chief of General Staff general Valery Gerasimov. In an atmosphere of blame-shifting and the need to find those responsible for failures in Ukraine, they are likely to look for opportunities to gain influence. 

Commentators have pointed out that individually neither the Chechen leader, nor the Wagner chief, are likely to have enough weight. They are also very unpopular with the official political elites and are seen as outsiders. But if they joined forces, they could challenge some of the others in president Putin’s inner circle, as cracks surface.

A Russian political analyst Abbas Galiamov says the way Kadyrov and Prigozhin behave is highly unusual for a country at war. 

“It appears that the vertical system of federal authority which president Putin had instituted is not working in one place where it is needed most - in the army.” 

Galiamov describes the situation where commanders of different military units argue with each other instead of jointly fighting as “anarchy”.

Experts from the American Institute for the Study of War believe that there are two broad factions in president Putin’s close environment: those in favour of stopping the war - in order to salvage their assets in the West, frozen under sanctions, and those in favour of continuing it. 

Ramzan Kadyrov and Yevgeny Prigozhin belong to the latter and want this war to go on. 

It is possible that this is what president Putin is keen to hear, and he may choose to keep them closer.

Additional reporting by Andrei Zakharov and Ilya Barabanov.

Read this story in Russian here.