War on oil: Ukraine’s campaign on Russia’s refineries – and what it means for Moscow
Analysis by BBC Russian confirms at least 81 drone attacks in 2024.
By Yaroslava Kiryukhina.
Ukrainians are weathering another winter amid the consequences of Russia’s methodical onslaught on the country’s energy infrastructure.
The effects of the Kremlin’s campaign have been widely reported. Less well known, however, is the scale and nature of Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil industry infrastructure.
According to an analysis by BBC Russian, Ukrainian drones last year attacked oil refineries and fuel depots across Russia, annexed Crimea and Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine, at least 81 times.
Refineries were a key target, and while the tempo of attacks was lower in the second half of 2024, a major drone strike was reported at the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov region just before New Year.
The facility is the chief supplier of petroleum products in southern Russia. Operations had already been suspended three times in 2024 before the latest attack set it ablaze again. It is not clear if the plant has resumed work after this latest strike – repairs at such installations are often lengthy.
Ukraine stated that the Novoshakhtinsk refinery was supplying fuel for tanks, armoured vehicles and aircraft, noting that “its proximity to the Ukrainian border was critical for Russian war logistics.”
In the course of the year, Ukraine’s strategy for attacking Russia’s oil infrastructure has changed substantially. Having targeted plants supplying the domestic market, from the spring onwards the focus shifted to facilities on which Russia’s military depends.
The number of drone attacks dropped off in the latter part of 2024. In March, the Financial Times disclosed that Washington had urged Ukraine to cease strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure. The fear was that they would lead to a spike in global oil prices and provoke retaliatory measures from Moscow.
Then in October, the FT reported Ukraine had sought to re-initiate talks with Russia on a joint halt on such attacks, but was unready to stop them unilaterally.
Drone strikes on oil facilities were most frequent in the south of Russia. According to our analysis, 20% of them took place in Krasnodar region. There were eight around Rostov, six in Belgorod region, and five each in Oryol and Volgograd regions.
Overall, 64 of the 81 attacks by Ukraine resulted in fires breaking out.
Last month, in December 2024, there were at least three strikes on infrastructure connected to the ‘Druzhba’ oil pipeline, the southern branch of which is the sole authorised route for oil deliveries to the EU. Two incidents were reported at the Stalnoi Kon rail station in Oryol region, the site of an oil depot servicing the pipeline, and a third at the Dyesna oil pumping station in Bryansk region.
We based our analysis on statements by the authorities in Russia and Ukraine, as well as media reports and posts on Telegram in Russia and abroad. We only counted as confirmed drone attacks those that had two separate sources. There may have been more. For example, we excluded the reports of fires at a refinery in Omsk because there was no definitive confirmation of the involvement of drones.
The consequences for the oil market
Last year, according to official statistics, petrol and diesel production went down while fuel prices went up. On top of that, profits in the energy sector slumped, according to analyst Kirill Rodionov: companies now have to spend more on repairing damage at the same time as coping with the curb on revenues caused by sanctions.
The timeline for unexpected work to fix damaged infrastructure is hard to predict, adds Rodionov, which further cuts into the manufacture of refined products.
Data from Reuters confirms the picture: the combined effect of drone attacks and sanctions has led to the cumulative shut-down of 41.1 million tonnes of capacity – or more than 12% of Russia’s total – while the volume of oil processed in 2024 was the lowest in 12 years.
The response from the Russian government to the growing number of drone attacks on refineries has been predictable: the energy ministry stopped publishing petrol production statistics last year “to ensure the informational security of the petroleum product market.”
Statistics for January to May, which remain in the public domain, suggest production of petrol and diesel slumped 20% and 11% respectively. Thereafter, the authorities imposed a blackout on such information. But price data is still available: in 2024, petrol rose by 10.85%, and diesel by 8.56%.
By year end, fuel prices plateaued, but the embargo on petroleum product exports was extended at least until January 31st. Companies have been prohibited from selling petrol abroad.
Sector expert Sergei Suverov believes the embargo will be lifted at some point, thanks to signs of stabilisation, and even a slight decline in wholesale prices. He notes that rates for A-95 and A-92 petrol brands fell 10% in December.
“Therefore, there are no significant issues with petrol supply in the domestic market right now, despite the ongoing repairs. But matters may worsen closer to peak season [traditionally the summer]. At that point, it may become necessary to reintroduce a ban on product exports,” Suverov said.
As for petrol price rises, he believes they will not exceed the rate of inflation in 2025 – though other experts and some politicians warned late last year they expected to see rises of 10-20%
How will Russia protect its refineries?
At the very start of the year, the Russian search engine Yandex was banned from showing the location of the infrastructure of one of Russia’s main refineries. The court order, prompted by a recommendation by the prosecutor’s office, did not say which exactly. But the Mediazona news outlet has since identified it as the Ryazan Oil Refining Company, which is closely connected to Russia’s defence industry.
The refinery suffered a minimum of two drone strikes last year, both of which resulted in fires breaking out. The court ruling alludes to four attacks on the refinery infrastructure, which also caused injury to employees.
We checked ‘Yandex Maps’ this week and the location of the Ryazan facility, along with those of other refineries, were still clearly visible – though the court order had yet to come into force.
It is unclear if the Russian government is aiding companies affected by drone attacks. The Kommersant newspaper reported in May that the finance ministry had rejected a request from Rosneft for tax benefits to compensate for the cost of protecting refineries.
Earlier, in March, an official from the energy ministry said it was developing security measures for the industry alongside the National Guard to guard against drone attacks. These were to include the installation of ‘Pantsir’ air defence systems.
Official data suggests there have not been enough to go round: Russia has 38 operational refineries, seven under construction, 42 in the design phase, and one, in Belgorod, undergoing refurbishment; yet only 50 ‘Pantsirs’ were deployed by the start of 2025.
Anti-drone nets have been hung above silos at the Slovyansk refinery in occupied Donetsk oblast, targeted at least three times last year, while pro-Kremlin bloggers reported in October that the Kapotnya refinery near Moscow, attacked earlier in the autumn, had been protected from drones by special cables. These can be clearly seen on photos available in the TASS news agency database.
They look similar to cables installed previously at the Novoshakhtinsk refinery near Rostov, mentioned previously, which apparently failed to prevent the strike causing a fire and shutdown of the plant in early summer.
Read this story in Russian here.
English version edited by Chris Booth.
