Counting the dead: almost 27,500 confirmed casualties as Russia pays the price of fighting Ukrainian counter-offensive
BBC Russian and Mediazona's ongoing count of Russia's war dead reflects the mounting casualties incurred in the month since the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive
By Olga Ivshina. 7 July 2023.
BBC Russian’s ongoing count of Russia’s war dead has now reached 27,423 confirmed names. This latest figure reflects the mounting casualties incurred as the Russian army faces Ukraine’s long-awaited counter-offensive. It includes a number of high-ranking officers, as well as soldiers whose lives could have been saved, their comrades say, if they had been supplied with better first-aid kits.
During the latest counting period - from 4 June to 7 July, the BBC, along with the independent media outlet ‘Mediazona’ and a group of volunteers, has been able to confirm the deaths of 553 people. At least 240 of these were killed since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive at the beginning of June. For the other 313 we were not able to confirm the exact date of death.
Our figure indicates the minimum possible number of Russian losses sustained in the Ukrainian counter-offensive so far. This number includes only deaths where the circumstances are mentioned, or where the dates coincide with the dates of the counter-offensive. The actual number of casualties is likely to be much higher than our current figures.
We publish only the names that we were able to verify from publicly available sources. These include statements by government officials, the media, family members’ posts on social media and graveyard records.
Repelling the counter-offensive
Since the beginning of the counter-offensive, there has been a significant increase in losses among Russian officers, especially senior officers.
Since the start of our count on 4 June, at least one general, two colonels and three lieutenant colonels of the Russian armed forces, as well as 12 other officers, have died in Ukraine.
This does not include the 13 Russian army pilots who died in clashes during the Wagner mutiny in Russia at the end of June.
The last time senior officers sustained such significant casualties was in the first few months of the invasion of Ukraine.
This most recent spike in casualties among commanders shows that the Russian army has failed to resolve the systemic problems that mean critical tasks require the personal presence of senior officers on the frontline.
With the Ukrainian army now in possession of Western high-precision long-range weaponry, the Russian command would need to move its command centres over 70 kilometres back from the front line in order to protect its senior commanders.
However, this would greatly affect the quality of command and control. The situation on the battlefield changes constantly and orders would take longer to make it to the frontline.
Furthermore, as many of the Russian soldiers now on the frontline are inexperienced and were only recently civilians, they require far more direction.
As a result, to ensure an effective response to the Ukrainian counter-offensive, senior Russian officers are once again too close to the action. They have no choice but to command troops in battle in person as though they were sergeants, rather than sending orders through subordinates.
The continuing deaths of senior officers, as well as the testimonies of survivors, indicate that 16 months after the start of the invasion, the Russian army, has still not solved the problem of operational communication between neighbouring units on the front line, as well as between the front line and command posts.
Privates on the frontline (the majority of whom are now mobilised reservists and civilians) continue to complain about the lack of effective communication with their neighbours in critical moment and a significant lack of able officers.
“A firefight broke out over our positions, they hit us hard. The commander ordered a retreat to the second line, but as soon as we moved we were shot at by our own. There was no way to contact them. In the end half the platoon fell. Some were ‘200s’ (military jargon for ‘dead’), some ‘300s’ (injured). Some of the injured didn’t make it, or rather they made it too late. They bled out”, one of the mobilised men trying to repel the counter-offensive explained to the BBC. A week after the interview, he also died.
According to this soldier and others from the frontline, the Russian army is still struggling to supply its ranks with modern personal first-aid kits. Those that are there are provided by volunteers or bought independently by soldiers.
There is also still no effective system for training the military, especially privates, in emergency first aid. Because of this, a significant number of injured Russian soldiers end up dying. Doctors have said that had there been the effective administration of emergency first-aid, these people might have been saved.
In June, there were reports that the state had supplied the special forces of the Russian National Guard with new first-aid kits with modern tourniquets and hemostatic agents. However, the regular army units that form the backbone of the frontline troops have not yet received such kits.
Both Russian sources and Western analysts have noted that some Russian units are fighting competently and effectively. However, the struggle against the counter-offensive is still only being achieved at the cost of heavy losses.
Russia’s total losses
The total number of losses confirmed by the BBC, Mediazona and our team of volunteers, now stands at 27,423 people. This number does not include those who fought on Russia’s side as members of the ‘people’s militia’ of the self-declared DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic) and LPR (Luhansk People’s Republic).
Over the course of 2022, sources in Russia indicated a weekly total of about 250-300 deaths. At present we learn of the deaths of about 600-700 Russian soldiers every week.
We believe that our list contains, by a conservative estimate, two times fewer people than the real number of war casualties buried in Russia. We came to this conclusion having systematically studied graveyard records in over 65 Russian settlements over the course of 15 months.
Thereby, since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, the total number of Russian losses can be put at 55,000 dead. The total number of casualties (including those that have serious injures and unable to fight or those that have died) totals at least 247,000 people.
The above figure is based on observations by the US Centre for Naval Analysis which estimates that for every Russian soldier that dies in the war in Ukraine, an average of about three and a half are wounded.
Former prisoners continue to be the largest category of casualties that we have identified. To date, the names of 5,211 dead convicts are known. These are only those whose sentences we could find in the public domain. There are bound to be more among the 2,273 dead soldiers of Wagner PMC that were prisoners sent to the front.
Most of the dead convicts fought as part of Wagner PMC. We also recorded an increase in losses among prisoners recruited into ‘Storm Z’ detachments at the suggestion of the Russian Military of Defence.
Given the confirmations of soldier deaths can only be attained at a later stage, we continue to receive new information about Wagner’s losses following the tumult of the last few months. In just the last two weeks we have been able to confirm the deaths of a further 514 members of Wagner PMC (including former prisoners).
Losses of mobilised forces
One in three deaths sustained as part of the effort to repel the counter-offensive come from people that were mobilised (77 out of 240 of the confirmed deaths).
In total, from the available sources, we know that 2,275 mobilised Russians have died. 60% of them died since January 1st, 2023.
Our figures, again, can be considered a conservative estimate. We only count the cases where the death has been made public and where it is possible to confirm the status of the combatant.
The real number of losses among mobilised forces may be far greater as, since October, in communications about soldiers’ deaths in Ukraine, there is no indication of the soldiers background status. Therefore, it is impossible to tell whether the dead soldier was a contractor, a volunteer or if they were mobilised.
According to reports from the fronts, specialists and volunteers called up from the civilian population now form a majority of the Russian frontline forces attempting to repel the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Losses in the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR
The total number of losses on the Russian side increases dramatically if we count those that died fighting as part of the ‘people’s militias’ of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.
Since the 22 December, 2022, the leadership of the DPR has stopped publishing the details of those it has lost.
Based on available sources, at least 11,000 members of the DPR’s and LPR’s ‘people’s militias’ have died.
Recently, the number of men fighting for the DPR and LPR that are being sought but cannot be found by their families has grown.
The BBC has discovered over 8,000 posts and messages on social media from people looking for their relatives. They are usually looking for men that have ended up among the ranks of the armies of the self-proclaimed 'republics' and that have not been contactable for a long time.
Even when counting only the publicly available details, the cumulative losses of those fighting on the side of Russia in this war may be put at over 74,000 dead.
The Russian Ministry of Defence last reported total losses on the 21 September, announcing the deaths of 5,937 people. Since then, the MOD mentioned battlefield deaths three more times, confirming the loss of a further 162 people.
In June, the Ministry of Defence asked regional authorities not to publish obituaries for dead soldiers. We know that such requests were made of representatives from Buryatia, Tuva and Khakassia, regions from which a particularly high proportion of the dead come from. According to some media, this is done specifically to make our count harder.
How we keep the count
New lists of the dead and photos from funerals are published in Russia every day. Most often, the names are announced by the heads of Russian regions, or by representatives of district administrations, local media and educational institutions where the deceased once studied. Sometimes relatives announce names.
The BBC, Mediazona, and a team of volunteers study this data, adding it to the list we have kept since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
We consider confirmed deaths as those mentioned in official Russian sources and the media or the posts of relatives and other sources if they are accompanied by photographs of the burial.
We do not count the losses of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR. However, we do count if it is a Russian citizen that has voluntarily joined these republics’ armies.
We determine the type of troops according to reports about where the deceased served, or according to insignia on the uniform.
However, mobilised troops, volunteers and prisoners are not separate branches of the military. Therefore, we have to separate these losses so that we can compare them with the losses of professional (contracted) units of the regular army.
‘Other troops’ in the graphs refer to those serving in the following: air defence; chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear defence; signalmen; doctors; aerospace forces; the Ministry of Internal Affairs; automobile and railway troops; military police.
Read this story in Russian here.
Translated by Danny Booth.
